The main data releases include weekly jobless claims and personal income, which include the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Before then, August updates on existing and new home sales could be illuminating. The same can be said about August durable goods.
There will also be ample opportunities to hear from Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue) on the economic outlook. A day earlier (Mon), the lone dissenter at last week’s FOMC meeting, Governor Stephen Miran, will speak to the Economic Club of New York. Miran—the Trump administration economist rushed onto the Federal Reserve Board by the Senate in time for last week's FOMC vote—wanted a 50-basis-point cut, making him the only dissenter.
Here's a look at this week's economic reports with the most significant potential to put another Fed rate cut in play—or not:
(1) PCED inflation rate. President Donald Trump, of course, has been urging the Fed to cut the federal funds rate down to 1.00% to add "rocket fuel" to the economy. However, the PCED (Fri) could show that core inflation—excluding food and energy—remained at a still-elevated annual rate in August (chart). The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model is showing a 3.0% y/y increase in last month's PCED inflation rate.
