August 26, 2025

QuickTakes

Economy Is Growing,

While Job Indicators Remain Solid

The monthly Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) survey includes the most timely monthly indicators of the labor market. August's survey was released today (chart). The jobs-plentiful series remained relatively high at 29.7%. The jobs-available series fell to 50.3%, which is above its average over time of 48.2%. That drop was matched by an uptick in the jobs-hard-to-get series to 20.0%. In our opinion, these stats confirm that the labor market remains in relatively good shape.

The present situation component of the CCI closely tracks the spread between the jobs-plentiful and jobs-hard-to-get series (chart). Consumers seem to be saying that the economy is doing better than the labor market.

The increase in the jobs-hard-to-get series indicates that it is getting harder for the unemployed to find jobs. So the duration of unemployment is increasing, putting some upward pressure on the unemployment rate (chart). On the other hand, initial unemployment claims remain low, confirming that layoffs are not a significant issue in the labor market.

Meanwhile, retail sales growth remains strong, according to the weekly Redbook retail sales index through the week of August 22 (chart).

Today's durable goods orders release for July showed several solid upticks in major manufacturing industries (chart).

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is tracking Q3's real GDP growth rate at 2.2% (saar). Several important components of GDP are growing at faster rates, including fixed business equipment and consumer spending on goods (chart).

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