April 8, 2025

QuickTakes

Is Something About To Blow Up

In The Credit Markets?

The S&P 500 is now down almost 19%. It closed at 4982.77 (chart). If it falls another 1.35% down to 4915.32, it will be in a bear market. The index was up sharply at the start of trading today, but closed down 1.6% during regular trading hours after the magnitude and imminence of the Trump administration’s tariffs on US imports hit home. After midnight tonight, the US is slapping a 104% tariff on imports from China. S&P 500 companies have lost $5.8 trillion in stock market value since Trump's tariff announcement last Wednesday, the deepest four-day loss since the benchmark was created in the 1950s. Tomorrow, the drop could make the history books as the second fastest bear market since the Covid selloff.

Trump administration officials have claimed that the plunge in stock prices caused by their tariffs only really hurts the wealthy. That's not true given that 62% of Americans have money invested in the stock market (chart). At the barber shop I went to on Sunday, everyone was complaining about how much money they lost recently in the stock market, including the barber. The guy who turned on my sprinkler system this afternoon was following the market on his cell phone and getting upset that the morning's rally fizzled.

Trump administration officials have been taking credit for the recent drop in bond yields and mortgage interest rates (chart). Unfortunately, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is up from a recent low of 3.87% on April 4 (two days after Liberation Day) to 4.36% this evening! Mortgage rates hit their highest level in over a month this week, reversing course after a period of improvement.

Why is this happening? Fixed-income investors may be starting to worry that the Chinese and other foreigners might start selling their US Treasuries.

The credit markets are also starting to show signs of stress. The yield spread between the high-yield corporate bond composite and the 10-year Treasury bond is widening rapidly at the same time as the S&P 500 VIX is soaring (chart).

ETFs that invest in high-yield corporate bonds and in senior bank loans are starting to plunge (chart).

The Stock and Bond Vigilantes are signaling that the Trump administration may be playing with liquid nitro. Something may be about to blow up in the capital markets as a result of the stress created by the administration's trade war. If so, then the S&P 500 will fall into a bear market for sure.

That's the bad news. The good news is that the Fed Put will probably make a quick comeback if this happens. However, the financial markets might not recover unless the Trump administration moves quickly to negotiate trade deals. It might have to postpone the tariffs for 90 days while it is doing so.

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