Stock investors are much happier now that President Donald Trump seems to be pivoting from pushing prohibitive tariffs to pushing American semiconductors and Boeing jets in the Middle East.
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May 14, 2025

QuickTakes

POTUS: From Tariff Man

To Global Salesman

Stock investors are much happier now that President Donald Trump seems to be pivoting from pushing prohibitive tariffs to pushing American semiconductors and Boeing jets in the Middle East.

 

President Donald Trump used a state visit to Qatar today to announce a large purchase by Qatar Airways of Boeing jets. Trump said the order was for 160 airplanes and claimed it was the largest order in Boeing's history. The announcement was made as part of a White House-led trip to the region that includes President Donald Trump and top CEOs.

 

Yesterday, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company will sell more than 18,000 of its latest AI chips to Saudi company Humain, which also announced partnerships with AMD, Amazon’s AWS, and Groq during President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia.

 

We've been recommending overweighting S&P 500 Information Technology (including Communication Services), Financials, and Industrials. We continue to do so and are please to see them regain the ground they lost during the correction. Let's briefly focus on the semiconductors industry:

 

(1) The S&P 500 Semiconductors industry stock price index fell by 35.1% from its peak in January through April’s low. The index has enjoyed a 43.6% bounce since April, leaving it down only 6.8% from its peak (chart).

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(2) Worldwide semiconductor sales remain on an upward trend in record-high territory. Fears that a glut of datacenters would depress semiconductor sales are abating, especially now that Saudi Arabia is building more datacenters.

2-May-15-2025-01-50-06-7410-AM

(3) The forward earnings of the S&P 500 Semiconductors industry has been rising to new record highs since the start of this year (chart). That confirms our confidence in the industry.

3-May-15-2025-01-50-25-0705-AM

(4) At the height of the selloff, Semiconductors' forward P/E fell to a low of 19.8 on April 3; it has since recovered to 26.0 (chart).

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